tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15628310.post1537650584431042393..comments2024-02-11T22:40:20.959-05:00Comments on Question of the day: Politics Gets in the WayAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18153935609499338685noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15628310.post-8083378851132805282010-07-19T06:20:12.638-04:002010-07-19T06:20:12.638-04:00The surveyed population might not be representativ...The surveyed population might not be representative of the whole population. So it is still not clear if green should plan victory.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15628310.post-15432641996697386112010-07-18T19:36:34.646-04:002010-07-18T19:36:34.646-04:00On the other hand, if the margin of error is 2.5 p...On the other hand, if the margin of error is 2.5 percentage points, that means that polling at 53% could represent 50.5% on the low end or 55.5% on the high end, giving him a majority no matter where he fell in the margin of error. Victory party planning should be in order.Mariettehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15324256293683370310noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15628310.post-27406111614240902332010-07-17T18:09:55.142-04:002010-07-17T18:09:55.142-04:00OK. I've been thinking about the maths, naggin...OK. I've been thinking about the maths, nagging at me all day. Presumably the 2.5% margin means a 95% probability that the vote will be 53% +/- 2.5%, i.e. 95% of the area under a normal curve. The thing with a normal curve is that they have long tails - just very improbable ones. So it is quite possible that the Green candidate will only get 1% of the vote for example, just very, very unlikely. Possible though, so as with my answer above, he or she should wait before they light the fireworks.reallyfatblokehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17207224602405806815noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15628310.post-50354864033617395532010-07-17T08:18:24.344-04:002010-07-17T08:18:24.344-04:00I'm not sure about the maths involved here, bu...I'm not sure about the maths involved here, but never trust a poll. I would recommend the Green candidate to wait until the results are in.reallyfatblokehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17207224602405806815noreply@blogger.com